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Claim Marbrg - Marburg kills 1000 within year

Category: News:Disasters JUDGED at 0
Owner:163, jim
Judge:3607, MatrixMan
created:2005/04/06
due date:2006/04/15

The Claim

In March 2005 the World Health Organization (WHO) retroactively identified Marburg hemorrhagic fever as the cause of an outbreak that started in Angola in October 2004. This claim will be judged YES if 1000 or more people are killed by Marburg hemorrhagic fever between the beginning of this outbreak and the due date.

If WHO (at http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/marburg_virus_disease/en/ or an equivalent WHO page) reports that 1000 or more people have died of Marburg hemorrhagic fever from October 2004 and by the due date, the claim will be judged YES. If WHO stops reporting deaths, the judge may choose another suitable source, such as the CDC. In all other cases the claim will be judged NO.

Judge's Statement

My intention is to judge based on the wording of the claim. If the wording is found to be ambiguous or have unintended loopholes, I will judge on the basis of the obvious intent. In any case, I will look for a solution that causes the least damage to FX as a market and game.

Judging may be delayed up to two weeks past the deadline, only for the purpose of being certain that all deaths up to the deadline have been accounted for. This will only be an issue if we are close, but just under the 1000 required for the claim. If we are far short of the number required, it will be judged within a few days of the claim date.

The claim may be judged true at anytime prior to the deadline if 1000 deaths are reported.

The intent is that the outbreak be the identified entity, so if the purported identity of the virus responsible for the outbreak changes during the period of the claim the intended meaning of the claim shall remain the same.

The Market

Your Buy YES Orders Players Buying YES Coupons
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Price Plot for life of Marbrg
Last trade price: 0
Current ask price: 100
Current bid price: 0
Pairs outstanding: 1515
Players participating: 23
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Your cash balance: 90.12
Your holdings in this Claim: 0
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