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Claim IAGING - Gingrich in Top 2 in Iowa 2012

Category: Politics:US Politics JUDGED at 0
Owner:5426, r6
Judge:3899, Zucchini
created:2011/11/20
due date:2012/01/04

The Claim

Newt Gingrich receives the most or second most votes in the 2012 Iowa Republican caucus. This claim will be judged on the popular vote numbers published by the media. In particular, the numbers reported by the New York Times on the day following the 2012 Republican caucus shall be used if available. If not available, the numbers reported by the Washington Post on the day following the 2012 Republican caucus shall be used if available. If not available, the judge can use other media reports or reports from the Republican party at their discretion.

Judge's Statement

This claim will be judged based on the New York Times and Washington Post's reported results after the Republican caucus.

If there is significant doubt or ambiguity, or if the Times' and Post's results differ from each other or from a significant number of other media reports, I will wait until the Republican Party of Iowa releases their totals.

Note that the proportion of the popular vote each candidate receives may not be the same as the proportion of the Iowa delegates' vote for those candidates at the Republican Convention. This claim is about the popular vote only.

Updated statement (3/1/2012, before polls open):

In case of a statistical tie, the ranking will be determined by "Standard competition ranking" (SCR).

Example 1: Suppose Gingrich is tied for first place with five other candidates. His rank by SCR would be "first," so this claim would be judged true.

Example 2: Suppose Gingrich is tied for second with five other candidates, and there is a single candidate who placed first. His rank by SCR would be "second," so this claim would be judged true.

Example 3: Suppose two candidates who are not Gingrich tie for first place. The next highest rank after this is "third," so this claim would be judged false.

In all cases, two (or more) candidates would be considered in a "tie" if the news organizations above give the candidates exactly the same percentage of the vote, to whatever accuracy the organizations report at.

Results

Gingrich placed forth according to http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/iowa. This result is uncontested by any other media reports. The claim is accordingly judged false.

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