Osama bin Laden (OBL) will be dead or in the hands of the USA or its allies by 6PM HST on 2004/11/02.
To qualify for a YES judgement, his name must be removed or otherwise shown as inactive on the FBI Most Wanted Fugitives list before the above time.
The chief US military spokesman in Afghanistan, Lt-Col Bryan Hilferty, said on 2004/01/29 "We have a variety of intelligence and we're sure we're going to catch Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar this year." Senator Charles Grassley (Republican-Iowa) said on 2004/02/02 "Obviously, he'll be caught between now and the election."
Although it is the intent of the claim owner to assess the likelihood that OBL’s demise is timed to affect the next US election, it is not my job to prove or to judge the intent of the “timing.” I will judge base on the date of the announcement of his removal alone, regardless of its intent or implication.
In the event that the FBI Most Wanted list (http://www.fbi.gov/) is not updated by 6PM HST on Election Day, if OBL’s death or capture is widely accepted by the time, I will still judge YES on this claim. To qualify as “widely accepted”, in addition to extensive media and/or government reporting, high degree of certainty is required.
I will announce my intended ruling in fx-discuss and allow one week time for discussion before making the final judgment.