Claim PFol - Protein folding solved by 2010

The Claim

This claim will be judged YES if by 1 Jan 2010 knowledge of a protein's amino acid sequence is sufficient to determine its tertiary structure in a given medium. Success is defined by the following criteria.

1. At least 10 previously unknown protein tertiary structures will be determined from amino acid sequence. Any number of persons or groups may be allowed to predict structures; however, groups used to satisfy this claim must have a success rate of greater than 2/3. (i.e., if the group predicts 10 structures correctly, they must predict no more than 5 incorrectly in the same time period.)
2. Proteins used to satisfy this claim must meet the following criteria:
• Must be nontrivial in size: greater than 50 amino acids
• Must be nontrivial in composition: more than 8 different amino acid residues within the predicted structure
• Must differ by at least 25% of amino acid sequence from known structures in the Brookhaven Protein Data Bank and from other structures previously predicted but not evaluated against experimental evidence
• Must occur naturally: designed proteins are not acceptable
• Must not consist of all alpha-helix or all beta-strand/sheet.
3. A structure is considered correctly predicted if the average RMS deviation of all backbone and side-chain atoms (excluding hydrogens) is less than .25 Angstroms or within the error bars of the experimental method used to determine the structure, whichever is worse. Any medium is acceptable-correctly determining crystal, solution, or vacuum structure satisfies this claim.
4. Correctly predicting the structure of a region within a larger protein is acceptable, provided the region meets the criteria in (2) above and the predicted region is indicated before experimental determination of the structure.

Judge's Statement

Ambiguity clause: I will judge this claim based on its precise wording, unless this wording conflicts with my perception of the intent of the claim. If both intent and wording are ambiguous, I will look for a solution that causes the least damage to FX as a market and game. If you have any questions, or think you may have found a loophole, please contact me!!

The Protein Structure Prediction Center at http://PredictionCenter.llnl.gov/ has information on the latest CASP (Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction) meetings. CASP1 was held in 94, CASP2 in 96. In the past, these meetings have centered around a large-scale contest of protein folding prediction techniques.

The Market

Price Plot for life of PFol

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