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Claim PenWin - Le Pen's share of votes - 2002

Category: News:World News JUDGED at 19
Owner:73, Karl Hallowell
Judge:3126, Varulv
due date:2002/11/19

The Claim

This claim pays YES coupon holders (%vote - 10)*100/40 where %vote is the percentage of the official reported vote acquired by Jean-Marie Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election (which are scheduled for May 5, 2002). If for some reason, these elections are canceled or postponed more than six months, then the claim will pay 0 to YES holders. The state of Le Pen's health or his qualifications for office is irrelevant to the claim (unless it prevents or delays the election). If he is removed from consideration (through death or some other cause) but the election occurs anyway, then the votes for his successor if any will be used instead for the above calculation.

Fractional amounts (of the payout on YES coupons) will be rounded to the nearest credibill cent. Exactly half rounds up so 38.4 rounds to 38 while 37.5 rounds up to 38. A little table of payoffs.

%vote YES coupon payoff
10 or lower 0
20 25
25 38 (rounded up)
30 50
40 75
50 or higher 100

Judge's Statement

I will use the official results as they will appear on the web site of http://www.service-public.fr. The official results of the first round are available on the same site at http://www.service-public.fr/accueil/elections2002_result_pres1.html.

Since the site only reports the absolute number of votes for the candidates, I will calculate the percentage for Le Pen as follows: %LePen = LePen / (LePen + Chirac).

The Market

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Price Plot for life of PenWin
Last trade price: 0
Current ask price: 100
Current bid price: 0
Pairs outstanding: 679
Players participating: 18
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Your cash balance: 441.44
Your holdings in this Claim: 0
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