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Claim Polio - Polio eradicated by 2002

Category: Science & Technology:Medicine, Biochemistry News:World News JUDGED at 0
Owner:73, Karl Hallowell
Judge:2118, Messiah
due date:2002/02/01

The Claim

The World Health Organization will announce that that polio has been eradicated by January 1, 2002. Judgement depends only on the announcement and not its accuracy.

Polio is a water-born disease that can cause paralysis and death in its usually young victims. Great progress has been made in eliminating this disease. Recently, the cases of Polio have declined from 35,000 in 1988 to 5,200 in 1999. On January 5, 2000, WHO appealed to governments world-wide to help them complete this project.

The eradication effort is not guaranteed to be sucessful. Polio is a highly contagious disease and many of the remaining countries that harbor the disease are in terrible shape (civil wars, anarchy, etc.). Here are some links to sites which have information on the recent efforts to eridate Polio.

The WHO's final push for polio eradication.

A January 5, 2000 story on WHO's announcement.

A Center for Disease Control (a USA government organization) report on the progress in 1997.

See the web sites www.who.org and www.cdc.gov for more information on these two organizations.

Judge's Statement

The criteria for judging this claim are obvious (at least to me). If either the WHO or CDC declare the disease eliminated worldwide (i.e., poliomyelitis assumes a similar stature to that of smallpox) then the claim is true as YES shares pay $1FX.

In the case of ambiguity (for example, it is announced that the disease is TENTATIVELY declared as eradicated, etc.), other reasonable criteria may be used by the judge to determine the veracity of the claim, including but not limited to: 1) Direct communications between myself and the CDC, NIH, or WHO 2) Direct consultation with the Department of Epidemiology at the University of North Carolina School of Public Health 3) More than half of US states no longer require poliomyelitis vaccination for public school students

In cases where consultation with experts is utilized, those experts will receive a full copy of this claim and a description of the overall intention of FX trading. Consultation with experts will be discussed on fx-discuss (if used) before final judgement is rendered.

The Market

Price Plot for life of Polio
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