A high temperature superconductor (defined as one with a transition temperature above that of liquid nitrogen, i.e. 77K), which is malleable and ductile (as opposed to current high Tc superconductors which are brittle ceramics) will be found in the next 10 years.
If not discovered by 31 Dec 2016 the payout will be 0. If discovered by 31 Dec 2016, the payout will be 1.
The key criteria will be: 1. Transition temperature >= 77K at ambient (atmospheric) pressures. 2. Material will be able to be drawn into a wire.
I intend to judge this claim on its exact wording. If it shouldn't be clear, I'll judge it on its intent.