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Claim TrumpX - Trump impeached/resigns in 1st

Category: Politics:US Politics bid 31, ask 45, last 30
Owner:3899, Zucchini
Judge:1683, Richard
created:2017/01/12
due date:2021/01/20

The Claim

Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States, will either be impeached by the House of Representatives or will resign from office, before January 20, 2021.

The claim may be judged early on formal resignation or on the adoption of a House Resolution constituting articles of impeachment; conviction by the Senate is not material to the claim. The claim may also be judged early on death, but should not be judged early if Trump vacates office for any other reason, in case he is reinstated before the judgement date.

Judge's Statement

Note that "be impeached" is analogous to "be indicted", not to "be convicted".

Note that death, impeachment and resignation are the only types of events that can trigger claim judgement. Vacation of office for any other reason will not trigger judgement. In particular, a written declaration that Trump is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, in accordance with either Section 3 or Section 4 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, will not trigger judgement, nor will a vote by Congress that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, in accordance with that same Section 4.

Any of the above events will be deemed to have happened if and when at least two of the following publications report it so: Washington Post, New York Times, Los Angeles Times

In case of ambiguity, I would judge by the intent of the claim.

The Market

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