By the end of April, 2003 (starting from the time of creation of this claim) the US makes a significant military assault on Iraq. Some military activities that would qualify:
Since Desert Storm (the part of the Persian Gulf War that drove Iraq out of Kuwait), the US and its allies have made numerous attacks on Iraq. The largest scale action in recent time was Desert Fox (Dec 16-20, 1998) which made 650 sorties all told. In comparison, the Persian Gulf War involved several hundred thousand US troops and just over a hundred thousand sorties while the US made at least 3000 sorties in Afghanistan by late January 2002 (according to public statements from President Bush made at that time).
I intend to judge this claim based on the intent.
In particular, a continuation of approximately the current level of sorties flown over the no-fly zones would not automatically trigger a YES, even if that number turns out to be more than the 3000 given as an example of triggering events.
The essence of this claim is to predict whether the U.S. launches a signficant new military assault on Iraq during the time frame of the claim.
Update by Karl Hallowell March 12, 2003 -
Due to difficulties in interpreting the "intent" of the original claim, I (the creator of USIraq) am now judge. The original judge's statement will continue to be honored. Here's my further elaboration:
By "intent" I will use the public record as archived in the fx-propose mailing list where all such discussion occured prior to claim approval. I posted a summary of this history to the fx-discuss mailing list on March 10, 2003.
Further, I'm in the process of properly defining the vague terms in the claim. Since it involves travel to libraries that aren't near by, I expect this to take several days.