Claim X400 - X.400 irrelevant by 2000

Category: Science & Technology:Internet

JUDGED at 100

Owner:	62, Alvestrand
Judge:	74, niobium

created:	1995/08/24
due date:	2000/01/01

The Claim

X.400, the mail standard, will be irrelevant by the year 2000.

The claim will be judged NO if one of the following is true:

A major retail software distributor reports that sales of X.400 end-user UAs are significant (more than 10% of its category) Gateways don't count here.
A believable survey shows at least 10% of E-mail traffic in some category with X.400/Internet competition is carried by X.400. Gateways count; politically chosen networks (like EC offices) don't.

The claim will be judged YES if one of the following is true:

ITU or ISO deletes X.400 from its list of standards/Recommendations in force
No major trade association (like EMA or EEMA) advocates the use of X.400
None of the 5 biggest network operators in the US offer an X.400 service to new customers (legacy systems don't count)

If none of the claims above are decidable, decision will be made by a poll announced to relevant newsgroups.
If claims both in the YES and NO category are true, the return will be divided equally between the YES and NO holders.

Judge's Statement

None.

The Market

Price Plot for life of X400

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