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Claim UKPARL - Labour MP's at next Election

Category: Politics:UK Politics JUDGED at 80
Owner:3299, mpshaw
Judge:38, highlander
created:2000/12/28
due date:2002/12/01

The Claim

This claim is a non linear scaled claim based on the number of labour MP's returned during the next general election in the UK, for the House of Commons.

For the non Brits here, in the UK, the prime minister can decide when to hold the next general election, subject to no parliment lasting more than 5 years. This means that the next election must be within the next 18 months. The elections are a first past the post system with aprox 659 seats. (electorial seat boundry and population changes mean that the exact number of seats may change each year). In each seat, a first past the post system is used to elect the member for this region.

This claim will pay on the following scale:

0 - 150 --> 0.0

151 - 200 --> 0.05

201 - 250 --> 0.1

251 - 275 --> 0.2

276 - 300 --> 0.3

301 - 325 --> 0.4

326 - 350 --> 0.5

351 - 375 --> 0.6

376 - 400 --> 0.7

401 - 425 --> 0.8

426 - 450 --> 0.9

451 - 500 --> 0.95

501+ --> 1.0

The expectactions in the UK are that the next general election will be within the next 6 months, and that the labour party will be re-elected, but a week is a long time in UK politics.

The seat count as it stands will be the total of labour seats in the next parliment as anounced by the BBC evening news on the following day (Friday). Seats that have not been fully counted by this time are not to be included.

In the unlikley case of an epidemic of florida fever only the members of parliment that have actualy been anounced by their consituency Chief returning officers are to count.

Judge's Statement

I will use standard news sources to judge this claim

RJB

The Market

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Price Plot for life of UKPARL
Last trade price: 0
Current ask price: 100
Current bid price: 0
Pairs outstanding: 354
Players participating: 24
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Your cash balance: 11863.06
Your holdings in this Claim: 0
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