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Claim Vote04 - Turnout in 2004 US election

Category: Politics:US Politics JUDGED at 67
Owner:4962, mbrubeck
Judge:38, highlander
due date:2005/11/30

The Claim

The value of this scaled claim is based on voter turnout in the 2004 U.S. presidential election. Each YES coupon's value is equal to the following amount, where "PVAP" is the percentage of the Voting Age Population that votes for a presidential candidate in the 2004 U.S. election, as reported by the Federal Election Commision:

(PVAP - 50.0) * FX$0.10

If turnout is less than 50% of VAP, each YES coupon pays $0.00.
If turnout is more than 60% of VAP, each YES coupon pays $1.00.

The value will be rounded to the nearest $0.01, rounding down if it is an exact multiple of $0.005.

This claim may be judged as soon as the FEC reports the voter turnout as percentage of voting age population. It should not be judged earlier. However, if the FEC will not publish the required information, the judge should use the best estimates available from other sources.

Information about voter turnout measurement is available from the FEC web site: http://www.fec.gov/elections.html

Judge's Statement

The FEC sources aren't readily accessible. These sources suggest this following judgement price: http://elections.gmu.edu/Voter_Turnout_2004.htm 53 http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html 53

The Market

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Last trade price: 0
Current ask price: 100
Current bid price: 0
Pairs outstanding: 1244
Players participating: 14
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